Vol. 01 The Data
Failure rates, risk models, drawdown mechanics, and behavioral patterns. This page is updated as observations accumulate. Every figure shown is referenced or marked as an estimate.
01 Failure Rates
Fail evaluation phase
90%
Industry estimate across major prop firms
Failures during evaluation
75%
Most breakdowns occur before funding
Caused by rule violation
60%
Behavioral, not strategic
Caused by overtrading
45%
Frequency exceeds plan
Methodology Note
Figures reflect observed patterns aggregated from public prop-firm disclosures, broker reports, and trader-reported outcomes. Exact rates vary by firm and account type. Numbers are presented as estimates, not guarantees.
02 Risk Models
Assuming a 50% win rate and 1:1 reward-to-risk, here is the approximate probability of breaching a 10% drawdown over 100 trades. Reality is messier — these are reference figures, not guarantees.
| Risk / Trade | Prob. of Ruin | Trader Profile |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | 0.1% | Survives extended drawdown |
| 1.0% | 1.0% | Statistically resilient |
| 1.5% | 2.5% | Vulnerable to streaks |
| 2.0% | 5.0% | Common DD breach point |
| 3.0% | 12% | Aggressive — high attrition |
| 5.0% | 40% | Most accounts fail here |
Approximations using simplified Kelly-derived ruin formulas. Real outcomes depend on win rate, R:R, position sizing model, and DD type.
03 Drawdown Mechanics
As your account equity rises, the maximum allowable drawdown follows it upward. A run-up of $1,500 doesn't give you breathing room — it raises the floor.
Effect: traders with strong runs paradoxically face tighter constraints and more pressure to protect the equity peak.
The drawdown floor is fixed at account inception. Every dollar of profit becomes a permanent buffer that can absorb future losses.
Effect: compounding behavior is rewarded. Traders survive variance instead of being crushed by it.
Key Observation
Most prop firm failures occur under trailing drawdown, during evaluation. Survival rates rise sharply once accounts transition to static DD.
04 Behavior Patterns
Trade count exceeds plan baseline by 2x or more — usually within 60 minutes of a loss.
Size creeps upward across consecutive trades, often after a win streak primes overconfidence.
Average hold time drops sharply during drawdown. Patience erodes first; rules erode second.
Trades concentrate in the last hour of session — typically attempts to recover P&L before close.
Multiple correlated entries in the same direction. Implicit leverage masquerading as conviction.
Stops move further from entry as the trade goes against. The single most reliable pre-failure signal.
The data points one direction.
Get the full Failure Report — the patterns, the breakdowns, and what they imply for evaluation strategy.
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